Battle for House control will be hotly contested

By Marc Powers

Nevada Daily Mail

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Heading into the fall elections, Republicans are in a strong position to retain control of the Missouri House of Representatives, although Democrats have a realistic chance of regaining a majority in the chamber.

Republicans have held a 90-73 advantage since ending their 48-year streak as the minority party in the House in the 2002 elections.

Democrats need a net gain of just nine seats on Nov. 2 to achieve an 82-vote majority.

However, the GOP appears to have some numerical advantages.

Coming out of this month's party primaries, Republicans were virtually assured of 36 seats in districts where their candidate is either unopposed in November or faces only third-party opposition. In another 43 districts, GOP incumbents are defending against Democratic challengers.

Combined with the seats already won, if Republicans successfully protect all of their incumbents they would need to pick up only three of the 23 contested open seats to stay in power.

House Speaker Pro Tem Rod Jetton, R-Marble Hill, said there are about two dozen swing districts, including a handful currently held by vulnerable incumbents of both parties. Jetton, who is in line to be the next speaker, is coordinating the GOP's statewide House campaign effort.

"Out of those battleground seats, Democrats have got to win about 19 of them to take the majority, and that is virtually impossible," Jetton said. "I feel very comfortable about our chances." Democrats basically secured 30 seats in the primaries and have 31 incumbents in contested races. Although acknowledging the post-primary numbers are tilted in the GOP's favor, House Minority Floor Leader Rick Johnson, D-High Ridge, said the advantage isn't insurmountable as long as Democrats work hard to win votes.

"We are going to get back to a strong grassroots field effort," Johnson said. "We fell down on the job in 2002 along those lines." The lack of an effective statewide campaign to get out the Democratic vote two years ago combined with a strong election cycle for Republicans nationally in a year when there was a large number of open seats in the Missouri House due to term limits helped the GOP win the day, Johnson said. This year he said the Democratic base is energized.

Johnson also believes there are closer to three dozen competitive districts. Of particular emphasis to Democrats is winning back seats in rural Missouri, where the party has been in decline in recent years.

Many Republican freshmen lawmakers from rural areas voted in lockstep with House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, R-Warson Woods, on legislation detrimental to outstate Missouri and will have to defend those positions, Johnson said.

While the potential exists for the Democrats to take the House, the Senate will likely remain in the hands of Republicans, who currently hold a 20-14 majority.

With only half of the Senate's seats up for re-election and two races decided in the primary, Republicans carry a 12-7 advantage into Election Day and need to win just six of the 15 remaining races to remain in control. Most of the contested races are in Republican-leaning districts.