Drought not broken yet, says experts

Tuesday, December 30, 2003
This faded August corn gives mute testimony to how dry Vernon County was this summer. Justin Baldwin/ Daily Mail

After a dry growing season in 2002 area agriculture producers spent much of 2003 looking skyward in hopes of rain. They were largely disappointed.

Early in the year Vernon County qualified for federal drought disaster relief. To qualify a county has to have under 40% of their average rainfall. For the months of July through Dec. of 2002 we were at 27% of normal.

By May things were looking a little better. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration division of the National Weather Service the two months of steady rainfall bumped Vernon County out of the drought category. In March Vernon County received 3.14 inches of precipitation and April netted 3.53 inches. This was average rainfall and helped the soil moisture increase.

However JaWan Thompson, CED of the Vernon County Farm Service Agency warned that while things are looking more favorable it was still too early to get excited.

This proved to be wise advice and by late summer the corn had turned brown and the soybeans were stunted and refusing to bloom. This made many Vernon County farmers wonder if perhaps they are in the midst of a prolonged drought.

During this time, Missouri governor Bob Holden asked the United States Department of Agriculture to consider drought assistance for 36 Missouri counties, including Vernon County.

Wayne Prewitt, West Central Region Farm Management Specialist for the University of Missouri, said that the corn and soybean crops were the hardest hit. What happened is that the wet spring allowed the corn to reach it's height but when the plant started to form kernels the precipitation dried up. Come harvest there was a lot of corn that only yielded 50-60 bushels an acre. "That just does not cover the bills," said Prewitt.

The soybean crop also suffered. Prewitt reported than much of the area soybeans are only half the height that they should have been. Nevada farmer Jim Hardin also lamented the poor soybean prospects, saying that it has been three or four years since the last good soybean crop. Ironically, producers who had gotten their beans in late were able to benefit from late season storms that caused their beans to bounce back and yield much better.

The largest problem with deciding what to plant in Vernon County is trying to decide if it is going to rain during the summer. What may come as a surprise to residents who have not been here a long time is June through August are traditionally the wet months, mostly due to summer thunderstorms spawned by moist Gulf air. University of Missouri Outreach and Extension Associate and MU Climatologist Pat Guinan said our area was running 10-16 inches behind average precipitation for the past two years. "Here we just can't seem to shake the dry conditions," he said.

"Is this drought going to continue into next spring? Looking at the climate records I would say it will most likely continue over northern and west central Missouri," said Guinan. He feels that by looking into the historical precipitation record Northwest Missouri may be facing a one in fifty year drought.

However, in planning for the long term Guinan says that there is a lot still up in the air. "I am comfortable showing you a monthly outlook or a seasonal outlook but when they go beyond that I think that there is a lot of doubt," he said.

Respond to this story

Posting a comment requires free registration: