Persistent weather pattern could mean melting snow, soaked soils add flood threat

COLUMBIA, Mo. -- Snowfall of more than 40 inches in northwest Missouri and 30 inches across the state north of Highway 36 could make this winter one of the 10 wettest on record, said a University of Missouri Extension climatologist.

Heaviest winter rainfall of 12 to 16 inches fell over the Missouri Bootheel, said Pat Guinan with MU Commercial Agriculture.

All of the snow, sleet and rain brings a threat of spring flooding, Guinan said. "There is significant snowpack across northeast Iowa, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. Soils are near saturation which can cause quick runoff from snowmelt or heavy rains." While it is too early for an official tally, preliminary records indicate precipitation will average about 10 inches across the state. A final ranking in wettest years is to still to be determined, but for Missouri it will be one of the wettest since 1895. Climatologists are estimating Illinois has had its third wettest winter.

Generally, 7 to 10 inches of precipitation fell north of Interstate 44 with heavier amounts of 10 to 15 inches southeast of the interstate, which runs from St. Louis through Joplin.

Guinan warns that winter is not over. "Snowfall amounts for the season will likely increase since it is not uncommon for more snow in March." In a normal winter 20 to 24 inches of snow falls across north Missouri.

While winter storms made it seem colder, the average temperature will be near normal, Guinan said. "It is still too close to call on whether winter was warmer or colder than usual for the state.

"Regionally, the northwestern third of the state averaged below normal," Guinan said. "Far northwestern counties with snow cover most of the winter recorded the coldest temperatures.

"The southeastern two-thirds of the state has averaged a degree below to a degree above normal. The southeastern tip of the Bootheel had the warmest winter, at two degrees above normal." If the temperature averages below normal, it will be the first colder-than-normal winter in five years.

"Winter was far from tranquil," Guinan said. "The state had three major ice storms, numerous snow storms, especially over northern Missouri, and an unprecedented outbreak of January tornadoes in southwestern counties.

"While soil moisture is near saturation, farmers are looking for a dry spell with warm temperatures," Guinan said. "Spring planting season is just around the corner."