Second 'La Nina' winter promises cold weather

The winter of 2011-'12 will probably not be as cold as last year's episodes of bitterly cold temperatures and howling snowstorms, but that's not to say more cold, snowy weather is not on the way, weathermen said Tuesday.

With temperatures in the east central Pacific Ocean running a little colder than normal, it will be only the fifth time in 62 years that consecutive "La Nina" winters have occurred, they say.

National Weather Service climatologist Gene Hatch of Springfield said there is an element of unpredictability because La Ninas are less influential in Southwest Missouri than on the East and West Coasts.

"One of the main factors last year was a persistent upper level low over the Hudson Bay or northern Great Lakes from September 2010 through February 2011," Hatch said. "We had a strong La Nina with Pacific temperatures 1 1/2 to two degrees cooler than normal.

"It's a weak one this time at minus-.6 of a degree, so it may not be as cool as last winter, which was the 20th coolest and 20th driest in 60 years at Springfield and Joplin. We tend to have more impacts from overall weather patterns."

Hatch said last winter was relatively dry even with the Feb. 1-2, 2011, blizzard that piled up 14 to 20 inches of snow in Vernon and Barton counties while leaving a foot to two feet from Baxter Springs and Cherokee County, Kan., to Versailles in Morgan County, Mo.

He said the average daily temperature from Dec. 1 through February in Joplin was 34.1 degrees.

AccuWeather forecaster Jack Boston of State College, Pa., told the Daily Mail that thunderstorms and tornadoes often follow a La Nina winter, although the enormous twisters that devastated Joplin and Tuscaloosa, Ala., last May 22 and April 27 were still shocking.

"There will be severe weather in February as the warm, humid air south and east of Missouri tries to bull its way north and all the cold air over the continent puts up a real resistance," said Boston. "The ocean absorbs and releases a lot of energy or heat, but at a slower rate than the land.

"The ocean tends to hold energy and conserve it like a battery."

AccuWeather's national forecast calls for a repetition of rugged winters in Chicago and Minneapolis but some letup in Philadelphia and New York City.

Chicago, where the average snowfall is 39 inches, had 57 inches last year and should get 52 this time, it said. Minneapolis, with a 50-inch average, had 87 inches last year and should see 56 this year. Comparable predictions are 21, 44 and 27 at Philadelphia and 29, 62 and 33 at New York City.

With the last warmer but heavily snow-laden El Nino winter having taken place in 2009-'10, Boston said, "Pacific Decadel Oscillation runs cold and warm 10 years at a time and is now messing up a lot of theories on global warming."